THE PREVIEW: The League One Run In
The final five games
23/04 Update
Birmingham still have the points record in sight, 8 points from 4 games will do it. Those 4 games are coming in a 10 day period though which could be their biggest opponent.
The race for the remaining promotion spot looks to be as you were before Easter, but it was anything but during. On Friday Wycombe won whilst Wrexham drew which saw the former leapfrog into second place. However on Monday Wycombe were hammered 4-0 at home by Charlton, a result which sees the Addicks move just 2 points behind Wycombe. Meanwhile Wrexham beat Blackpool to regain 2nd place. Five points separate 2nd to 5th with Stockport lurking too although there are probably not enough games left for them. This Saturday sees Charlton visit Wrexham, a game with huge consequences on this automatic race.
Wycombe meanwhile travel to Leyton Orient, the side currently occupying the final play off spot. Two wins over the Easter period saw them overtake Reading into 6th, the Royals losing on Friday to Lincoln who then beat Bolton on Monday to all but end their chances.
At the bottom things are very interesting, especially when you take a look at the remaining fixtures. Mansfield *should* be safe, one point given their goal difference should confirm that. Then Burton occupy the last safety spot. Both of those sides have a game in hand and better goal difference but this Saturday sees Burton travel to Cambridge, the side in 23rd who are just 5 points behind Burton. A win for Cambridge moves them 2 behind Burton. Bristol Rovers face Reading who need a win to keep the pressure on the play off hunt. Crawley meanwhile have the “easier” run in, facing a safe Northampton and a relegated Shrewsbury. They are just 3 points off of safety but again their goal difference is inferior.
14/04 - The updated table after matchday 41.
Birmingham are champions, they didn’t need to kick a ball in League One to confirm it as Wrexham drew 0-0 with Wigan. Wrexham and Wycombe are confirmed to finish in the play offs at least, though the automatic places are the goal. They are now separated by just a point, whilst Stockport closed the gap to Wrexham to 5 points. It could be too little too late for them though.
Lincoln are the first side officially confirmed to be staying in League One next season, they cannot finish in the play offs or relegation. Though there are a few teams who look to be settled in that mid table spot too.
At the bottom Burton leapfrogged Bristol Rovers on goal difference. They picked up a great win over Huddersfield whilst Rovers lost at home to Exeter. Crawley and Cambridge also lost to deepen their troubles whilst Shrewsbury earnt a point to keep them hanging onto League One status for another matchday.
We are deep into the run in for the 2024/25 season and I think it’s been a great one. As I look at the leagues there are still some big things to decide and this week I will be bringing you the outlook for the three EFL divisions as we hit the end of the season.
The League Two Run In is out whilst the Championship will come later this week so subscribe to keep up to date, plus I will update the tables each week as the run in changes.
Let’s get into League One.
There are a few rearranged games to come whilst Birmingham and Peterborough face off in the EFL Trophy final on the 13th April which is going to create a couple more fixtures. So a few sides still have 6 games to go whilst some rearranged games were played this week to make the table look more even in terms of games played.
In terms of the table, Birmingham have secured promotion already and are closing in on the title. Wrexham lead Wycombe in the fight for second with Stockport and Charlton looking to be heading for the play offs.
Reading went into 6th on Tuesday night at Bolton’s expense but they will face stiff competition to keep hold of that final play off spot.
Shrewsbury look to be League Two bound and Cambridge and Crawley have work to do if they are to avoid joining them. Burton occupy the last spot with Bristol Rovers just above the drop zone. Those all the way up to 15th could still be looking over their shoulders too. There are a handful of sides who are settled in mid table but they will be looking to end the season strongly.
I’m going to break down the run in below and point out some notable fixtures to look out for too.
The Run In
Let’s break this down. starting at the top.
The Title and Automatic Fight
Where are we now?
Birmingham are closing in on the title having secured promotion on Tuesday night with a win over Peterborough. Wrexham are in the driving seat for second and automatic promotion with Wycombe are chasing but have not been able to keep up their early season form and the play offs may well beckon for them. But a win on Tuesday night at Huddersfield means they are just 3 points behind.
Stockport and Charlton are probably too far adrift to catch Wrexham, being 7 and 8 points behind respectively.
What does the run in look like?
Birmingham could well have the title wrapped up before they next kick a ball given that they are in the EFL Trophy Final on Sunday. It could be a double celebration for them but failing that then it could be won next weekend where they host Crawley Town. Should they fail to do that then they will have five more attempts to wrap it up.
Wrexham will have to navigate sides battling relegation and play off chasing if they are to see out promotion. A trip to Wigan is followed by a visit from Bristol Rovers, two sides in the relegation picture. Then Blackpool are waiting for them as they cling onto pay off hopes before hosting Charlton who may well have settled into a play off place by then. A game against Lincoln sees out the season should they need it, Lincoln would have had their eyes on the beach for a while come then too.
Wycombe host a stubborn Stevenage as a tricky set of fixtures are thrown their way. Bolton, Charlton, Leyton Orient and Stockport await for the Chairboy’s as they face the toughest run in in the whole league based on average position. Orient and Stockport may have little to play for come their fixtures but at the same time so may Wycombe.
Notable Games
Unlike League Two where there were plenty of intra promotion and relegation games, I may have to stretch out the notable games here.
Birmingham City v Crawley Town - 3:00pm, 18/04/25
Bolton Wanderers v Wycombe Wanderers - 3:00pm, 18/04/25
Blackpool v Wrexham - 3:00pm, 21/04/25
Wycombe Wanderers v Charlton Athletic - 3:00pm, 21/04/25
Leyton Orient v Wycombe Wanderers - 12:30pm 26/04/25
Wrexham v Charlton Athletic- 3:00pm 26/04/25
Wycombe Wanderers v Stockport County - 3:00pm 03/05/25
DailyTalk Thoughts
Birmingham’s aim is the points record, as it should be after they assembled one of the best squads this level has ever seen. Wycombe unfortunately seem to be falling away and Wrexham know how to win games so I can see them getting over the line too, especially with Wycombe’s tough run in.
But that win over Huddersfield keeps things interesting. Any Wrexham slip up would give Wycombe a way in and their goal differences are similar with Wycombe slightly ahead.
The Play Off Fight
Where are we now?
Stockport and Charlton sit 8 and 7 points above Bolton with 5 games to go, so I’m going to leave them out of this part as I’m confident they are both play off bound.
On Tuesday night Reading won their game in hand whilst Bolton lost theirs as the two sides swapped places. Huddersfield also lost to fall 4 points further back. Leyton Orient won a thriller to stay in tough whilst Blackpool just watched on having not played and saw themselves end up 8 points behind Reading, probably ending their play off hopes so I’ve excluded them here.
What does the run in look like?
Reading have a favourable run in on paper with 3 of their games coming against sides with little to play for. The remaining 2 are against sides above the relegation zone, Northampton are up first and could be tricky but they would back themselves in a trip against Bristol Rovers.
Bolton have to face 4 sides with little to play for in terms of the table, but their other game comes against Promotion chasing Wycombe. Barnsley, Lincoln, Peterborough and Stevenage will all be looking for top half finishes so whilst they may fall into the category of teams looking to next season, they are still good sides and tough opposition.
Huddersfield’s run in kicks off with two games against relegation battlers in Burton and Cambridge. Then they have trips to Stockport and Exeter, the former could well have their play off place confirmed by then but they’ll want to end the season in form to carry that to the play offs. Exeter could have their League One status confirmed by then too. If they are still in with a shot at the play offs then a final day game against fellow chasers Leyton Orient could be crucial.
Before Orient face Huddersfield they’ll also need to overcome two relegation battlers in Crawley and Cambridge. Those fall either side of a game against Barnsley whilst their final home game of the season is against Promotion chasing Wycombe.
Notable Games
Bolton Wanderers v Wycombe Wanderers - 3:00pm, 18/04/25
Stockport County v Huddersfield Town - 3:00pm, 21/04/25
Leyton Orient v Wycombe Wanderers - 12:30pm 26/04/25
Huddersfield Town v Leyton Orient - 3:00pm, 03/05/25
DailyTalk Thoughts
It feels like this is Reading’s to lose. With all their off field issues it’s remarkable that they find themselves in 6th place with 5 games to go. There is a horrible situation where they could head into the play offs with a massive uncertainty on their status as a football club going into next season so I’m hoping their off field ownership is resolved ASAP.
Bolton’s season has been one of inconsistency and their loss on Tuesday to Rotherham summed it up. They have 28 shots but couldn’t find the net. They have scored more goals than their rivals here but have also conceded a considerable amount more too and their defence could cost them in the run in.
Huddersfield have lost 7 of their last 10 games, but every time they seem out of it they pop up with a win. They are just 4 points off Reading but have not been making any ground recently and seem to be tumbling out of the race. Leyton Orient similarly looked to fall out of contention when they recently lost 5 in a row, but 10 points in their 5 games since that run has them clinging onto a chance at 6th. They need to make up 5 points on Reading though and The Royals have been in good form recently, only losing 1 of their last 14 games.
I struggle to see past Reading here, though Bolton are credible chasers here.
The Relegation Fight
Where are we now?
It’s hard to draw a line for the relegation fight with Burton’s point difference yet game in hand. It could be higher or it could be under Northampton. But should Burton win their game in hand then the gap is not that big. Unfortunately that game in hand falls after the others penultimate game of the season but it is a game against Wigan Athletic and if the gap has been reduced by then it could be huge.
On the other end of things Shrewsbury’s relegation could be confirmed this weekend should they not better Bristol Rovers’ result. Cambridge and Crawley also have work to do to survive.
What does the run in look like?
The run in’s do make for interesting reading with a few of the sides playing each other or having tough fixtures. Wigan’s run in starts with a game against Wrexham, before a trip to last place Shrewsbury Town. Home games against Rotherham and Blackpool could be their best chance of points given both sides may have their eyes on the summer but the pressure will be on. Their game in hand against Burton leads into a final day game against Northampton.
Northampton themselves face current play off sides Reading and Charlton before having a game with Shrewsbury themselves. Crawley come next before the game against Wigan, so Northampton can expect a tough test in each game given each sides situation.
Bristol Rovers come into this having lost 5 straight games. A game against Exeter gives them a chance to get on track but they could find themselves in the relegation zone should they lose and Burton beat Huddersfield. They also need to face Wrexham, Reading and Blackpool in their run in as well as a game against a stubborn Stevenage side. Burton meanwhile face Exeter themselves before facing Birmingham, Cambridge, Wigan and Charlton which is a tough run in.
Crawley need to get something from their first two games against Leyton Orient and Birmingham which is easier said than done. They also then face Exeter who could have a big say in the relegation picture. Games against Northampton and Shrewsbury look big on paper but may come too late for them.
Cambridge have the toughest run in based on average position. They face 4 of the top 9 in Charlton, Huddersfield, Leyton Orient and Birmingham. A penultimate day showdown against Burton could therefore come to late as well.
Finally, Shrewsbury could be relegated with a defeat to Lincoln this weekend. Wigan, Northampton, Barnsley and Crawley make up the rest of their season so one way or another they could have a say in the relegation picture still.
Notable Games
Shrewsbury Town v Wigan Athletic - 3:00pm, 18/04/25
Northampton v Shrewsbury Town - 3:00pm, 21/04/25
Crawley Town v Northampton Town - 3:00, 26/04/25
Burton Albion v Cambridge United - 3:00, 26/04/25
Burton Albion v Wigan Athletic - 7:45pm, 29/04/25
Northampton Town v Wigan Athletic - 3:00pm, 03/05/25
DailyTalk Thoughts
The one side who don’t play another relegation side are Bristol Rovers who will need to capitalise on that but are on a losing run right now. I fear for them that if they fall into the relegation zone they won’t be able to pull themselves out of it.
Crawley and Cambridge may have too much to do - Cambridge in particular given their tough run in. Crawley’s best chance is Burton and Bristol Rovers failing to pick up points and forgetting about the other two sides.
Northampton and Wigan should have enough in the bank to survive with just a few more points before the end of the season. Wigan though only picked up 3 points in their last 5 games and if they replicate that again here they could be cutting it fine.
Still I think Burton and Bristol Rovers is the real battle here.
The Run In Final Thoughts
Whilst there are still things to play for this season I feel we could be in for a premature resolution in a few of the battles. If Wycombe drop any more points then Wrexham will be confident in wrapping up promotion soon, whilst Bolton’s inconsistency could hand Reading the play off place. In the relegation zone Crawley and Cambridge could struggle to close their gaps leaving just Burton and Bristol Rovers to fight it out. But I can see Burton leap frogging Rovers to see out the season.
But their are some interesting games between promotion, play off and relegation battlers which could add some excitement to the picture. Every game the picture changes so come Sunday we could be looking at a completely different one.