THE PREVIEW: The Championship Run In
Five games to go
Update 23/04
Two games remain. The Easter double header has been and gone and the outlook on the table has shifted again.
Leeds and Burnley are promoted! A 2-1 win for Burnley over Sheffield United on Monday meant they, and Leeds who emphatically thumped Stoke 6-0 earlier that day, were now out of Sheffield United’s reach.
Bristol City, Coventry and Middlesbrough all lost on Monday to allow Millwall and Blackburn to eye up a potential route into the play offs again. West Brom lost to all but mathematically end their hopes and whilst Swansea have now won 5 in a row to end the season well but their play off hopes really ended before they begun.
Watford, Sheffield Wednesday, Norwich, QPR and Portsmouth all have confirmed their Championship 2025/26 status - Portsmouth can not fall behind both Hull and Derby due to them facing each other (though my conditional validation isn’t sophisticated enough for that).
Five of the bottom six going into Monday won, with only Cardiff failing to do so. They drew with Oxford who fell into the bottom six themselves. Losses for Preston and Stoke mean they are looking over their shoulders still and Oxford aren’t quite out of it just yet. Luton’s inferior goal difference could cost them but it was a huge weekend for them as they beat Derby and Bristol City to pull level with the former. Argyle and Derby were ruing the second half results on Monday as they led at half time, only to watch Hull come from behind and win and Luton win.
Hull v Derby, Saturday 26th April, 3:00pm. The other relegation battlers may just have one eye on that.
Update 15/04
Hull and Coventry’s 1-1 draw rounded out the weekend’s games on Monday night. The table looks like so with four games to go:
Leeds and Burnley won to pull 5 points clear from Sheffield United who lost 2-1 to bottom side Plymouth Argyle. This now means that should The Blades not close the gap on Friday to Burnley and Leeds, on Easter Monday Burnley can beat Sheffield United to secure their promotion, which will also give Leeds a chance to do the same.
Bristol City’s 1-1 draw at QPR saw them move 4 clear of 7th place as Middlesbrough lost to Millwall. A point for Coventry also sees them 3 points clear of 7th where West Brom now occupy the spot of the leaders of the chasing pack.
At the bottom Oxford and Stoke were the big winners as they pulled themselves 6 and 5 points clear of the relegation zone. Stoke beat Cardiff who sit in 22nd, a point from safety. Derby are the team in that position, they conceded a late equaliser to Portsmouth but the point is better than what the two teams directly below them got as Luton also lost. Argyle were the only side in the now bottom 6 to win over the weekend and they move 3 points behind Derby and safety - though their goal difference means they will need 4 points (or a 28 goal swing).
It’s a Friday - Monday Easter weekend which this year is crucial as it falls later in the season. In a weeks time there will be 2 games left and some sides will know their fate for next year.
A full midweek feast of Championship football has changed the landscape yet again in the run in to the end of the season. Five games remain and the title, promotion, play offs and survival places are still all to play for.
I have previewed the League One and League Two run ins (you can read them on my homepage) but this is the one that brings the most excitement in my opinion as there is so much still to decide.
The Run In
Let’s break this down. starting at the top.
The Title and Automatic Fight
Where are we now?
Leeds had thrown it away and were tumbling to another play off appearance… but they are top of the league again after a 1-0 win at Middlesbrough saw them leapfrog Sheffield United and Burnley who failed to win their midweek games.
Sheffield United’s two point deduction leaves them two points adrift in third. It’s an interesting battle as Sheffield United have the most wins, Leeds have the most goals and Burnley have the best defence.
Sunderland sit in 4th on 76 points, they have too much ground to make up for the automatics in my opinion with a 9 point swing needed, but their place in the play offs is confirmed.
What does the run in look like?
Based on league position Leeds and Sheffield United face an average lower placed opposition that Burnley do, but it means they have to navigate relegation battlers whilst Burnley face play off battlers.
Leeds start this run by hosting Preston who should have enough in the bank now to finish around mid table. The they face two sides lower down in Oxford and Stoke before hosting Bristol City who sit in the play off places right now. On the final day they face Plymouth Argyle who could be relegated by then.
Burnley play Norwich, Watford and have a final day tie with Millwall. All sides who have outside play off hopes right now. They also have a game against a currently out of form QPR, but it’s their middle game in the run in against Sheffield United that is the eye catching one.
Before facing Burnley Sheffield United face Plymouth and Cardiff who are both in the relegation zone. Then they finish the season with a game against Stoke before hosting Blackburn Rovers.
Notable Games
Without including every game against lower ranked sides I’ve just picked out each sides toughest game on paper.
Burnley v Sheffield United - 5:30pm, 21/04/25
Leeds United v Bristol City - 8:00pm, 28/04/25
DailyTalk Thoughts
We could be looking at a showdown between Burnley and Sheffield United here in a few weeks time to join Leeds in the Premier League next season. But over the last (pick any interval from 2 to 12) games Burnley have picked up more points than their rivals. With 5 games to go lets take 5 as a sample. In the last 5 games Burnley have won 11 points whilst Leeds have won 9 and Sheffield United 7.
A lost of that is down to The Blades’ last 2 results where they’ve suffered back to back 1-0 losses. They’ve stumbled at the wrong time and their inferior goal difference means they need to outscore their rivals by a point, so they need to make up 3 points in this run in. Playing Burnley means it’s in their hands - win 5 and they are up. But it’s the same for all 3 sides.
All three teams have enough talent to get promoted, so it’ll come down to who can hold their nerve. We’ve seen cracks from Leeds but they bounced back with a win at Middlesbrough. Burnley have drawn too many games for their liking but they have turned that to winning recently, 8 of their last 12 games have been wins and they haven’t lost any either.
Leeds were here last year, they may have failed to finish in the top 2 then but they should have learnt from that experience and if they use that here they should have enough. They have the fear factor against other sides but it also means everyone sees them as a scalp. At their best they can beat anyone in this division but I don’t think we’ve seen it enough and that’s what it’ll come down to for them.
The Play Off Fight
Where are we now?
With Sunderland’s play off spot confirmed there are just 2 spots left to fight, for.
Bristol City took the advantage on Tuesday night as a late Haydon Roberts goal saw them beat West Brom and go 5th. Coventry were also the beneficiaries of a late goal as they beat Portsmouth 1-0 on Wednesday night to return to the play off places.
Middlesbrough’s 1-0 loss to Leeds means they fall out of the play off places for now and are 2 points behind. West Brom are a further 3 points back along with Millwall whose slim chances were given a boost with a great 1-0 win at Sheffield United. Finally Watford are another point behind, 6 off of Coventry and the Play Offs, but a win on Tuesday means they are hanging onto that chance too.
Norwich, Blackburn and Sheffield Wednesday all drew in the week which all but mathematically ended their play off chances. They sit 9 points behind Coventry with 5 games to go. All three sides however could have roles to play in the run in.
What does the run in look like?
Bristol City’s away record is weaker than their closest rivals here, winning just 4 games. So having 3 away games and just 2 home games is their biggest test here. They start with a trip to QPR who beat Oxford yesterday to finally win after an 8 game drought, pulling them away from the drop zone. Sunderland are then up next at home before they visit teams fighting at either end of the table in Luton and Leeds. A tricky set of fixtures to navigate before they end the season at home to Preston.
Coventry City face 3 relegation threatened sides away from home and 2 play off chasing sides to see out their season. A trip to Hull kicks off their run in before they host West Brom where a win could end The Baggies play off hopes. Trips to Plymouth and Luton follow before a final day showdown with Middlesbrough could be a decider for the play offs.
Before Middlesbrough get to Coventry they start their final 5 games with a trip to Millwall - in fact this weekend all 4 chasing sides have games against another chasing side which could benefit Bristol City and Coventry. Then they host Plymouth in a game where they could send the Pilgrims down to League One. Games against Sheffield Wednesday and Norwich are also good chances at points given those two sides will have little to play for but they could view those games as a chance to scupper ‘Boro’s play off hopes. Still, ‘Boro could be in a good position when they face Coventry on the final day.
West Brom’s chances seem to be fading but if they can beat Watford and then Coventry they will still have a chance. Their final 3 games sees them face 3 relegation battling sides in Derby, Cardiff and Luton. Their remaining opponents have the lowest average position compared to their rivals which seems favourable though playing relegation sides is never easy.
Millwall could pull level with Middlesbrough this weekend if they can pull off a win agains them at The Den. Their inferior goal difference though could hamper them. they sit on -1 right now with only Watford having a worse goal difference in the top half. Blackburn and Norwich will be looking to end Millwall’s bid should they still be in with a chance, then Swansea and Burnley see out their season. It could be a tough ask on the final day to get a result should they need it.
After their game against West Brom, Watford have a tough test against Burnley and I feel they need at least 4 points here to stay in touching distance, providing Coventry and Middlesbrough don’t get a full 6. Games against Portsmouth, Blackburn and Sheffield Wednesday pose easier tasks on paper but having 3 of their 5 games come away from home is a big test for The Hornets.
Notable Games
Millwall v Middlesbrough - 3:00pm, 12/04/25
West Bromwich Albion v Watford - 3:00pm, 12/04/25
Coventry City v West Bromwich Albion - 3:00pm, 18/04/25
Bristol City v Sunderland - 3:00pm, 18/04/25
Coventry City v Middlesbrough - 12:30pm, 03/05/25
DailyTalk Thoughts
Since earning promotion back to the Championship, Bristol City’s highest finish has been 8th. This is their best chance of beating that and it’s some turnaround after fans were calling for Manning to be sacked early in the season. Their form. has been good - the second best points return over the last 10 games. Their last 5 games have seen them earn 10 points, the same again would surely see them over the line and having Coventry and Middlesbrough face each other on the final day means they could go into the final day knowing it’s in their hands given both other sides can’t win.
Coventry’s turnaround under Lampard has been terrific but they’ve come unstuck in a tough run of games recently. It’s just 6 points from their last 5 games though that did involve losses to Sheffield United and Burnley. On paper their run in is arguably easier, they face no sides currently above them and 3 of the bottom 6. The task for them here is getting to the final day with it in their hands against ‘Boro who will be ruing their 5 game losing streak back in February.
Middlesbrough have the firepower here to get them into the top 6 but do they have the consistency? They’ve pulled themselves from 11th in February to be 7th now in April, they have games they will back themselves to win and they also have a superior goal difference should it come to that. They need to make up 2 points on Coventry and 3 points on Bristol City who have only won 4 away games all season and have 3 more to go. They definitely have a chance here.
I do think the 5 points needed for West Brom and Millwall and the 6 points needed for Watford are going to be too much to make up. But it’s the pressure on those above them. If results fall this weekend so that West Brom and Millwall are just 2 behind Coventry and/or 3 behind Bristol City then it could be anyones to win.
The Relegation Fight
Where are we now?
Midweek results mean Swansea, QPR and Preston should be safe. Swansea are 9 points ahead of the drop whilst the latter two are 7 points ahead. None of the sides in the bottom 8 won so it’s all to play for with Portsmouth in 17th just 3 points above Cardiff in 22nd. Luton are just 2 points further back whilst a loss for Argyle on Wednesday may well have sealed their fate being 5 points from safety and having a very tough run in.
What does the run in look like?
There’s a lot to cover on a per team per game basis, there is a full fixture run down in the picture at the top of the article.
Portsmouth sit top of this group and have 3 home games remaining which is what they will be looking at. They’ve won 4 of their last 5 at home and have taken 35 points from 20 games. Their home games include Derby and Hull as well, Derby are up first this weekend and a win would put 7 points between the sides.
Oxford have a similarly good home record, taking 35 points from their 21 home games but hey have 2 just games remaining at home and they are against Leeds United and Sunderland. A win against Sheffield United will give them confidence but it’s not ideal for them. They’ve taken just 10 points away from home this season so having 3 away games is tough, one of those being against fellow relegation battlers Cardiff on Easter Monday.
If Hull can navigate Coventry this weekend then games against Swansea and Preston give them opportunities against sides with little to play for. But it’s their final 2 games which are huge as they host Derby before travelling to Portsmouth.
Stoke may not have the toughest run in based on position, but based on teams with things to play for it has to be up there. They travel to Cardiff this weekend before hosting Preston. Then it’s back to back games against promotion chasers Leeds and Sheffield United before ending the season at Derby in what could be a crucial final day tie.
Derby themselves play 4 fellow relegation strugglers in the run in. They are going to have a huge say in this picture one way or another as they face Portsmouth, Luton, Hull and Stoke. A game against West Brom in the middle as well is no easy feat either.
The first side in the relegation zone currently are Cardiff. Their first test in this run is at home to Stoke City before they travel to Sheffield United. Oxford are then up next and the two sides are currently separated by just 3 points. Their season ends with games against West Brom and Norwich, where Cardiff will be hoping those sides have an eye on the summer already.
Luton’s season ends with 3 games against play off chasers but before then they face Blackburn and then Derby, whom they are just 2 points behind. It’s Bristol City, Coventry and West Brom to see out the season and they will hope they have already made up ground on those above them by then.
Unfortunately for Argyle they have the most ground to make up and the toughest run in based on average position. It’s actually the toughest in the league as their average remaining opponent is 6.6th in the league. Sheffield United are up first before a trip to Middlesbrough - a game which could see Argyle relegated. Coventry are up next before a trip to Preston and their season ends at home to Leeds United. They could have a say in the promotion and play off picture yet.
Notable Games
Portsmouth v Derby County - 3:00pm, 12/04/25
Cardiff City v Stoke City - 3:00pm, 12/04/25
Derby County v Luton Town - 12:30pm, 18/04/25
Cardiff City v Oxford United - 3:00pm, 21/04/25
Hull City v Derby County - 3:00pm, 26/04/25
Derby County v Stoke City - 12:30pm, 03/05/25
Portsmouth v Hull City - 12:30pm, 03/05/25
DailyTalk Thoughts
There’s a lot going on here to digest, seven intra-relegation-battling fixtures.
This landscape is going to change by the week and the fact 3 points covers 6 sides here makes it tough to predict. 5 points covers the 7 if we include Luton who are just 2 points from safety right now.
Plymouth Argyle seen down and out, their best hope was getting a result against Swansea on Wednesday but they crumbled in the first half, losing 3-0 and the fact they’ve only won back to back games once all season doesn’t stand them in good stead going into their final 5 games where they need to outscore Derby or Cardiff by 6 points given their inferior goal difference.
But as for the rest it is so tough to call. If Portsmouth can get a win this weekend against Derby they will put 6 points between the two sides with 4 games to go, but if Derby win then they go above Portsmouth - the literal definition of a 6 pointer and there are 6 more of them to look at.
Luton face Derby in the next matchday and if things remain the same this weekend then a win for Luton would see them leapfrog Derby. But it’s hard to really look even just one game ahead as that could already have happened this weekend or the gap could be 5 points.
It’s set up to be an incredible fight, I think out of all three battles in the league this one is the most interesting and could have the most twists and turns before the season is out.
The Run In Final Thoughts
It’s been an incredible Championship season so far and these final 5 games are set up to make it truly magical. There’s going to be heartbreak for some but elation for others and I don’t think you can look away from any of it.