EFL Fantasy Football Guide Week 20
The Pre Christmas gameweek
It was a disappointing week last week. I had some solid picks but breaking my golden rule did not go to plan - two defenders on the same team backfired when Cambridge put 2 past Wrexham. Leeds faltered again away from home whilst the Portsmouth gamble fell apart with Derby scoring with their first, second and fourth shots of the game on their way to a 4-0 win.
Pears, Souttar, Hamer and Stansfield did have solid returns though to save my week and I’ll be looking to replicate those selections this time around.
As always my league is here.
Also the Football Breakdown Gameweek 20 Preview podcast is out now, give that a listen if you want more talk about potential picks! (Available on Spotify, Apple, YouTube and Substack). Iain was the top scoring player in the world in Gameweek 19!
You can also follow me on X (@DailyTalkFball) and BlueSky (@dailytalkfootball.bsky.social).
Goalkeeper
Connor Ripley, Port Vale
vs Carlisle United, home
Surprisingly this is the first time Ripley has been in my team, though I’ve backed Port Vale defenders before. The reasoning here is fairly straight forward, one of the best teams in the league at home to one of the worst teams in the league. Ripley has 8 clean sheets this season and averages over 2 saves a game.
Vale haven’t kept a clean sheet at home since September which may be a worrying stat. But in the 6 games since then they’ve only conceded more than one once, they’ve won 3 and drawn 2. They did keep a clean sheet last time out at Bromley though and Carlisle are the weakest side they will have played at home in a while, with recent home games including Walsall, Crewe, Wimbledon and Fleetwood.
Carlisle are the leagues lowest scorers, on the road they have just 7 goals in 9 games. They’ve failed to score 3 times and have only scored more than one in one of those games. Last away game they needed a 92nd minute goal to draw at 10-man Bromley, in fact their last 3 away goals have come past the 80th minute.
So I am happy to back Vale here to show their superiority and Ripley should be looking for another clean sheet here.
Defenders
Robbie McKenzie, Gillingham
vs Cheltenham Town, home
Sticking in League Two with my first defensive pick and Robbie McKenzie comes into my side. McKenzie has actually been playing in midfield for much of the season, though missed time with an injury earlier on. When playing he is averaging 8.2 points, but if you take out the game in which he came off at half time before missing games, and the game he returned off the bench for 13 minutes, he averaged 9.6 points across 10 games.
The Gillingham record with and without McKenzie is also eye opening.
With McKenzie:
Played 10, W 7, D 1, L 2, 22 pts, 4 goals conceded, 7 clean sheets
(Excluding the game vs Crewe were he came off at half time).
Without McKenzie:
Played 8, W 2, D 1, L 5, 7 pts, 10 goals conceded, 2 clean sheets
Playing in midfield he is also taking 1.18 shots per game and has 4 goals this season. Gillingham come up against a Cheltenham side who have conceded 5 in their last 2 away games, 16 in 9 away games all season. There should be chances for McKenzie going forward.
Jimmy Dunne, QPR
vs Preston North End, home
QPR have picked up their form at a much needed time and Dunne has been reaping the returns. He’s averaged 10.4 points in his last 5 games where QPR have kept 4 clean sheets. Twine’s free kick last weekend was the first goal they’ve conceded since Cannon scored for Stoke 6 games ago. So it’s also no goals conceded in open play in their last 5 games (plus 60 or so minutes).
As well as clean sheets, Dunne has a goal and an assist in that run plus those clearance numbers above speak for themselves. He made 10 clearances against Bristol City on his way to grabbing 5 points despite no clean sheet.
Preston are The R’s opponents and they are another side who have looked to improve, but don’t really have the same results to show for it. They beat Cardiff in their last away game but that was their first away win of the season. QPR have also limited their opposition’s chances at Loftus Road recently with Oxford, Norwich and Stoke only being allowed 4, 5 and 9 shots respectively. Preston are not a high shot taking side so they could struggle here to get anything on QPR’s goal so I’m happy that the clean sheet chance looks high.
Midfielders
Gonçalo Franco, Swansea City
vs Hull City, away
My first midfield pick of the week is Gonçalo Franco of Swansea. Franco joined in the summer and is starting to settle in in Wales. He’s started 17 games this season and whilst there has been some rotation in the Swansea midfield recently I expect him to start again here. In his last 2 starts he’s scored 12 and 10 points through an assist, interceptions, key passes and shots on target.
It’s Franco’s all round game that attracts me to this pick. He averages 1.52 shots, 1.45 interceptions and 1 chance created per 90 minutes. The potential for points on both sides of the ball is there. He is yet to score which is something I’m taking as a plus here as he is “due”. He’s taken 23 shots, has an xG of 1.77 but is goalless, I feel a goal must be coming for him soon.
Hull City are the opponents and they are struggling. Rubén Séllés has come in, but it’s still early days and whilst he and the players are still getting to grips with the task at hand I want to back someone in a Swansea side who are looking more like a complete article.
Jack Lankester, Crewe Alexandra
vs Colchester United, home
9 goal contributions in 820 minutes (just over 9 games) is definitely eye catching and Lankester looks to making himself a key part of this Crewe side. Lankester is taking 3.29 shots per 90 with 1.32 on target and is playing in Crewe’s front line, often a front 2 alongside Shilow Tracey. So getting a midfielder playing in attack is definitely a bonus. His creativity is also on show with 1.76 chances created per 90. 17 Key passes and 5 assist show Lankester has more to his game than just shots.
Any interceptions here would be a bonus too. Crewe host Colchester on Friday night, at home they have been brilliant since their 5-0 loss to Chesterfield in their first home game. Colchester are a solid opposition, they have only lost twice away from home and come into this with back to back away clean sheets in the league, but Crewe will be a tougher test than the sides they’ve faced recently. They have conceded 15 in 9 games including 4 to Walsall and Wimbledon so they have shown potential to crumble.
Thelo Aasgaard, Wigan Athletic
vs Shrewsbury Town, home
Wigan’s young star is off the back of a goal, an assist and 13 points in Wigan’s win over Bolton last weekend. Now they host Shrewsbury Town who have had the leakiest League One defence this season. Shrews have lost their last 3 games, including back to back 4-1 losses. Since Ainsworth took charge that have conceded 12 goals whilst across the season they have conceded the most goals per 90 in the league at 2.0.
Aasgaard has 6 goals and 2 assists this season and is taking 2.98 shots per 90 with 1.4 on target. He should get opportunities this game to add to his account here against one of the poorest sides in the league.
Forwards
Louie Barry, Stockport County
vs Peterborough United, home
Barry returns to the side this week and he needs little introduction at this point. Recently it’s 5 goals and an assist in his last 5 games. At home it’;s been an 8.6 point average across the last 5 games which includes a 5-0 loss to Wycombe.
Peterborough are a big reason in this pick. They’ve conceded 6 goals in their last 4 games, 35 across their 19 games so far this season. Away from home they’ve conceded 2 goals a game whilst they average 13.16 shots against per 90. Only Shrewsbury have a worse defence.
Stockport have potential to really run riot here against a Peterborough side who don’t travel too well losing 5 of their 8 games so far. Stockport have won 6 out of 10 at home, scoring 18. This game could well have goals from both sides but with Posh missing Poku and losing 5 of their last 8 games, Stockport should have the upper hand as they look to cement their place in the top 6.
Teams to win
Leeds United
vs Oxford United, home
I’m backing Leeds again but this time at home there should be little risk. After trying to be too different last week this pick seems like the most obvious option of the week.
Leeds are top of the Championship home table with 9 wins and a draw in 11 games, whilst Oxford are second last with 7 losses out of 9. In fact 7 of Leeds’ 11 home games have seen them return the full 9 point return in Fantasy EFL. 4 have come in their last 5 home games with only Middlesbrough scoring at Elland Road in that run.
3 of Oxford’s away games have seen their opponents get a full 9 point result. They’ve failed to score in their last 4 on the road and are now without a manager going into this game after Buckingham’s dismissal.
Sheffield United
vs Cardiff City, away
I was still looking to take a chance on an away team this week and Sheffield United fit the bill the most. It’s 21st vs 1st. Cardiff have now lost 3 in a row at home, their last 2 home games have seen their opponents take the full 11 point fantasy return.
Sheffield United have 5 away wins this season, 3 coming in their last 5 away games. They beat Millwall 1-0 in their most recent away game showing that they can pick up results in tough away trips. Of the games they have not won away from home, only draws against Portsmouth and Coventry were against current bottom half sides. Whilst they have 3 full 11 point wins. Here they should have too much for Cardiff.
That’s all for this week. Follow my socials to keep up to date with any changes should players not be playing. Beware there are a lot of Friday evening kick offs as well this week. This is the team in full:
