EFL Fantasy Football Guide Week 16
Focus on the doubles
The Championship returns, as does a full League One and Two fixture list. And then some. It’s a double Championship gameweek plus there are 9 rearranged League One and 2 rearranged League Two fixtures to give the sides in those fixtures a double gameweek too.
Plus, there are no more international breaks until March, the next non full slate will probably be the FA Cup weekends, so until then though we have a full fixtures to choose from.
Last week it was a positive week, but it could have been a lot better. I think I lost over 20 points in the final minutes of AFC Wimbledon v Accrington Stanley as the visitors lost their 2 goal lead to draw 2-2, losing the full Accrington away bonus point win and a clean sheet for Crellin. Then Ben Woods had his assist removed and given to Donald Love. Quite a turn around to leave me on 92 points when I was around 117 at one point.
But there’s no point dwelling on that, the focus now is this gameweek.
As always my league is here.
Also the Football Breakdown Gameweek 15 Preview podcast is out now, give that a listen if you want more talk about potential picks! (Available on Spotify, Apple and Substack).
Goalkeeper
Callum Burton, Wrexham
vs Exeter City, home
vs Lincoln City, home
At the time of writing Arthur Okonkwo is at 10.6% selection, I understand a lot of players may have picked him early on and stopped playing, but still that is a lot of people with a sidelined keeper in goal. Then again Ethan Ampadu is in 22.3% of teams and he hasn’t played since Gameweek 8.
With Okonkwo’s absence, Callum Burton will step up. Last week he made 7 saves in a 1-0 loss away to Stockport to show that he is capable of doing this. In fact this is exactly what he has excelled at in his career, stepping up for injured keepers. For Cambridge he came in for the injured Dimitar Mitov in December 2020 and saw out the season as Cambridge went on to win League Two. For Plymouth Argyle he stepped in for Michael Cooper in February 2023 and again saw out the season as his side would win the title, this time in League One.He’s a very capable keeper at this level so I have few worries about this change disrupting Wrexham.
Wrexham have two home games this week and it’s at home where they have excelled this season. They have the best home record in the league with 6 wins and a draw from 7 games, they’ve only conceded 4 goals in that time as well. It’s 4 clean sheets for Wrexham at home with Okonkwo and I have confidence that Burton can come into this side and keep that good record up.
Defenders
Georgie Gent, Barnsley
vs Wigan Athletic, home
vs Reading, home
My sub 0.1% pick this week is Georgie Gent from Barnsley. Gent has become the starting left wing back in the last 6 games, in that time he’s picked up 3 clean sheets (being subbed off at 0-0 in a game where Barnsley would lose 2-0 so he keeps his clean sheet for that), he’s also picked up 6 bonus points for tackles and a bonus point each for clearances and blocks in that time.
He’s averaging just under 6 points a game in the last 6 games, playing at left wing back he does have the chance to go forward. He’s created 5 chances this season and picked up an assist in the EFL Cup. He had 1 goal and 5 assists on loan at Motherwell last season and the 21 year old has potential to bring those stats into League One.
Barnsley’s opponents also come into this, they have 2 home games against 2 sides who travel poorly in Wigan and Reading. Wigan have just 1 win and 7 goals in their 7 away games, blanking in front of goal in 4 of those games. Reading also have just the 1 win away and 8 goals in their 7 games, they’ve failed to score in one of those games but they’ve conceded 17 goals away from home which is the joint highest in the league so there could be chances for Gent to get in the assist column here.
Maxime Estève, Burnley
vs Bristol City, away
vs Coventry City, home
Estéve is one of the top Fantasy EFL defenders this season. Over 3 clearances and 1 tackle a game along with 9 clean sheets in a Burnley side who are yet to concede more than 1 goal in a game this season. Their attacking play may not be clicking still but they sit 4th in the league with the best defence.
Their gameweek starts with a trip to Bristol City. On Burnley’s travels they’ve kept 4 clean sheets this season, only losing to Millwall recently who like to sit back and counter and Sunderland early in the season who have shown to be a top side so far. City will be tough opposition but they haven’t won at home in their last 4, scoring just 2 goals in those games. I do think that game could be leaning to a 0-0 which suits us here.
Coventry are the next opponents and they are still managerless though seem to be close to an appointment. Still, managerless teams often play a bit more reserved but they’ve already failed to score in 3 of their away games and their only win on the road came against 10 man Middlesbrough. I think they will struggle to break down Burnley so the angle here is definitely double clean sheets.
Midfielders
Finn Azaz, Middlesbrough
vs Oxford United, away
vs Blackburn Rovers, home
I thought he couldn’t keep going with such a high shot number without scoring, and now Azaz has 3 goals in his last 4 games. Add 3 assists in his last 5 to that too and he’s the inform player in midfield right now. In his last 4 games the only no point return was against Coventry where he was sacrificed after 25 minutes following Hayden Hackney’s red card. So his last 4 full game returns are 7, 9, 10 and 19 points. An average of 11.25.
The stats above show he was already averaging over 2 key passes and 1 shot on target a game to show how influential he could be in this ‘Boro attack, games against Oxford and Blackburn should give Azaz a chance to continue this hot streak.
Willum Willumsson, Birmingham City
vs Shrewsbury Town, away
vs Exeter City, away
‘Thor’ returns to my team this week as I think Birmingham have 2 games that where they can cement their place towards the top of the table. They’ve been good this season, but no more just yet. However I’ve really liked Willumsson, his 8 goal contributions is only matched by Alfie May in the City team.
Thor averages 6 points a game which shows his scoring rate has been good and consistent, only 3 games have seen him return less than 5 points so far and with a double gameweek I’m happy to take what should be a solid return.
Casper De Norre, Millwall
vs Sunderland, home
vs Portsmouth, away
The interception king in the Championship, De Norre has overtaken team mate Saville on that front and is averaging 2 interceptions a game. It’s 6.5 average points on the season but it’s over 8 on average in the last 4.
Millwall have been superb recently, unbeaten in 7 with 4 wins in that time and just 2 goals against. They’ve had back to back 1-0 home wins over Burnley and Leeds too, now they host league leaders Sunderland who are without a handful of key players including Jobe, Roberts and Hume. In those 2 home games De Norre picked up 13 points with 5 interceptions against Burnley and then 5 points with 2 interceptions against Leeds - only playing half an hour in that game from the bench.
So in home games against sides who like to play with the ball he is thriving in the interception category. An away game to struggling Portsmouth could see similar results as under Mousinho they still like to play with the ball and De Norre Should benefit again.
Forwards
Nathan Lowe, Walsall
vs AFC Wimbledon, away
vs Bromley, home
I found the striker pick quite hard this week. With the double gameweek I was checking players likely to have significant minutes across 2 games as well as those with favourable fixtures, and those who can return good points. I’ve settled on Nathan Lowe who I’ve picked a few times before and I’m confident in this one. Lowe has 7 goals and 4 assists so far this season in League Two. If you expand that out to all competitions he has 10 goals and and 5 assists.
In his last 11 games in all competitions he has 7 goals and 4 assists and has only failed to contribute a goal or an assist in 2 games, one a cup game against Leicester City and the other an away game to Accrington Stanley who have been much improved as of late. He’s averaging 6.4 points on the season which puts him 3rd for all forwards in Fantasy EFL behind Borja Sainz and Jodi Jones (who is injured).
An away trip to AFC Wimbledon could be tricky but I watched them concede twice to Accrington in the week and they did lose at home to Grimsby in the home game before that. This could be a good game all round. A home game to Bromley should be one where Walsall have too much for their visitors as well and I’d expect Lowe to be involved in any goals somehow.
Teams to win
Birmingham City
vs Shrewsbury Town, away
vs Exeter City, home
Birmingham are first in my team selections this week. A double away gameweek gives 2 chances of bonus away wins and I think they are good enough to win both of those games. They have the depth for these double gameweeks and have already beaten Shrewsbury quite easily in the EFL Trophy. Exeter have been a solid side this season but they lack depth and that gives Birmingham the upper hand in midweek.
The Blues have scored 2+ goals in 4 of their 6 away games, winning all 4 of those. They also have one 2-0 win on the road to bring in the full 11 points which is what I am eyeing in at least one the games here.
Sheffield United
vs Coventry City, away
vs Oxford United, home
Coventry away may not be the easiest trip to have, but a managerless struggling Coventry is the type of game Sheffield United will look to win to achieve their promotion aspirations. Coventry have conceded 2+ goals 7 times this season, 5 of those were at home. Whilst they have scored plenty at home this is the best defence they would have faced so far and United won’t allow them back into the game should they make another slow start at home.
Oxford United are terrible travellers, just 2 points in 7 away games makes Sheffield United heavy favourites there. It’s 4 straight wins for the Blades in the league, 3 clean sheets in those games and 2+ goals in 3 of them as well. So bonus points should be coming in here one way or another (technically they always have to with a win as you can’t win, score less than 2 and not keep a clean sheet).
Sheffield United would be the outright leaders without their points deduction so I’m confident in taking them this week.
That’s the team this week:
Let me know yours in the comments.